2021.03.21 Analysis







 Weekly Chart

  • Selling off for 7 months after parabolic ATH. Broke below bull trend line, with a downward momentum. Moderate to strong breakout.

  • Testing near bottom of parabolic climax at 1670.44. 

  • Selloff is forming a wedge and the third leg bounced near support of the beginning of the start of the parabolic leg.

  • Last three bear candles were strong, and this is the second bull candle from the wedge bottom bounce.

  • Last week was a bullish buy signal for the wedge bull flag. This week went above the last weeks high to trigger the buy signal. This setup is moderately strong because this week is a bull bar with a decent bull body and last week was a bull bar with a larger bull body. Would have preferred strong follow through.

  • Stop for bears is high above. Price bounced from trading range.Bounce could be profit taking as well. 

  • Bulls might try this week for a strong follow through candle. 1759.95 is the target on deck. Follow by 1785.02. 

  • Bears want this week to finish as a bear body and negate last weeks trigger candle.

  • Bulls need a strong bull bar to convince traders bull trend is resuming.

  • Since the downtrend has had lots of chop and overlap, if bulls produce a bounce it may be strong.









Daily Chart

  • Bounce from weekly bull wedge, 61.8% support, trading range support and start of parabolic leg to all time high. Currently in second leg of bounce.

  • All 5 bars closed above 1724.47-1726.37 with last three bars forming an ioi pattern. So Breakout Mode.

  • ioi pattern has more prominent tails to downside, and two tails have bounced off support with Friday’s tail not even testing it.

  • Closed near high of day, and right at Wednesday’s FOMC Close.

  • Target for bulls is 1759.95 wick high from -4 weeks ago. Target for bears is 1699.22 low, which is the start of the current second leg.

  • AIL on Daily

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

2021.03.23

  2021.03.23 Pre-Open Market Analysis of Daily Chart Yesterday was a bear day but bears weren’t that strong because of a small bear body and prominent lower wick. Bears are hesitant. Bears formed a Lo1 Sell Signal yesterday by breaking yday's high. To trigger it, it would need to fall below yday's low at 1727.35. The ioi daily pattern triggered to the downside, but once price neared the 1726 support, it bounced and we closed higher than the last 4 closes of bars which similarly tested that support. Much overlap over the past 6 days, with more prominent tails to the downside. Bulls want a test of 1759 and bears want a meaningful close below 1724-1726 support Overnight trading on lower timeframes XAU is up 25 pips, near it’s overnight high. Market sold off aggressively by 70 pips after the Asian open to 1731.14 and has since received nearly 100 pips.  H8 is ranging and has a bullish ioi triggering to the upside. There are definitely more prominent wicks to the downside, indicati...
Read more

2021.03.25

  2021.03.25 Pre-Open Market Analysis of Daily Chart Yesterday ended up bouncing off the 1726-1724 support. Not a particularly strong bounce, but disheartening for the bears after such a strong close on Tuesday. The Bears need this support broken.  Today will be pivotal - if we close bullish, then the bull case strengthens as a bounce off support. If today’s bar closes bearish but above the support, then the lower timeframes could be bouncing to a lesser degree than the previous support tests and that would strengthen the bears case.   Silver has been much more bearish than gold. EURUSD has been very bearish, the DXY has been bullish and USDJPY looks like it’s breaking out of a HTF Bull Flag. With all these factors, you would think that gold is either behind and needs to catch up to intermarket dynamics or that the support at 1724-1726 is causing it to lead the way in a reversal. The issue with this is that aforementioned markets, still have room to run before they h...
Read more