2021.03.25

 2021.03.25


Pre-Open Market Analysis of Daily Chart


  • Yesterday ended up bouncing off the 1726-1724 support. Not a particularly strong bounce, but disheartening for the bears after such a strong close on Tuesday. The Bears need this support broken. 

  • Today will be pivotal - if we close bullish, then the bull case strengthens as a bounce off support. If today’s bar closes bearish but above the support, then the lower timeframes could be bouncing to a lesser degree than the previous support tests and that would strengthen the bears case.  

  • Silver has been much more bearish than gold. EURUSD has been very bearish, the DXY has been bullish and USDJPY looks like it’s breaking out of a HTF Bull Flag. With all these factors, you would think that gold is either behind and needs to catch up to intermarket dynamics or that the support at 1724-1726 is causing it to lead the way in a reversal. The issue with this is that aforementioned markets, still have room to run before they hit some type of area of interest.

  • I’m holding gold shorts, but with each H4, H8 and D1 candle close, I will continue to weigh three progressively pessimistic scenarios: 

  1. Gold will catch up to market dynamics and bears will take it below 1724. 

  2. Gold will continue to consolidate while the rest of the markets march towards their respective AOI’s. 

  3. Gold will lead the way out of the reversal.

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